The terminal drift point with ASML really nails it. I've seen so many models where people started at 3% perpetuity growth and quietly bumped it to 4.5% just to make the valuation work. The reverse DCF approach is clutch here because it forces you to own those assumptions upfront instead of letting them creep in the back door. Makes you realize paying 32x for perpetual 10% growth is basically betting nothing goes wrong for a decade straight.
The terminal drift point with ASML really nails it. I've seen so many models where people started at 3% perpetuity growth and quietly bumped it to 4.5% just to make the valuation work. The reverse DCF approach is clutch here because it forces you to own those assumptions upfront instead of letting them creep in the back door. Makes you realize paying 32x for perpetual 10% growth is basically betting nothing goes wrong for a decade straight.